Well, what a summer we’ve had. After 2 months travelling Asia, I come home to discover Donald Trump tearing the Republican Party apart from the inside, Hilary Clinton facing calls for criminal charges to be brought against her, and Joe Biden actively exploring a presidential run. My apologies to those who noticed I was gone, hopefully I’ll be posting more regularly now I’m back in the country. In any case, after the flurry of announcements and campaign events over the last three months, along with a double Republican debate, I thought everyone could do with a catch-up of exactly where we are. With 35 days until the first Democrat debate, and just nine days until the next Republican one, here’s who’s running and what they’re aiming at. Think of it as a crib sheet, not just to get you up to speed today, but also to help you keep the hour-by-hour coverage of the 2016 hopefuls in perspective.
So, for the Democrats we have five major candidates:
– Lincoln Chafee: The former Governor of Rhode Island, his message is a firmly anti-interventionist view of foreign policy. Sitting very, very low in the polls, (getting a solid 0.8 in the latest nationals), the measure of his success may be how far he can influence the other candidates in their foreign policy statements.
– Hilary Rodham Clinton: The former Secretary of State needs no introduction and, despite an enduring performance from Bernie Sanders, she remains the presumptive nominee for most.
– Martin O’Malley: The former Governor of Maryland is playing hard on his youth (having been more or less robbed of his much-vaunted crime reduction in Baltimore since the riots there earlier this year), but risks being too moderate to undercut Sanders but not establishment enough to take on Mrs Clinton. As he sits only 1.5 points above Mr Chafee, the debate and subsequent Iowa primary are both crucial for him to have any meaningful impact on this race.
– Bernie Sanders: The Senator from Vermont has quite the popular movement behind him, including some simply grateful for an alternative to Mrs Clinton. Tacking hard to the left of practically everyone, Mr Sanders is banking on strong performances in the early primaries to show that Mrs Clinton can be beaten.
– Jim Webb: The former Senator from Virginia promotes a curious mix of anti-interventionism and cultural conservatism. As a result, it’s difficult to see what base he can target and the polls agree: he manages only 1% more than Chafee. Similarly to Chafee then, his focus may be on pushing the major candidates away from any hawkish foreign policy tendencies, as well as their cultural liberalism. An unenviable task.
Unless you’ve been living under a rock, with a larger rock on top of that rock, and then Mount Everest on top of that, you know the Republican field is enormous, so I’ll try to be concise.
– Jeb Bush: The former governor of Florida has an ocean of money (the largest of all candidates) and is arguably the most establishment candidate. Unsurprisingly he is therefore the candidate most visibly thinking of the general election next year: refusing to back away from support for immigration reform and maintaining a centrist position on many issues. (A bold move given the current mood of the Republican base). He’s in it for the long haul.
– Ben Carson: The former neurosurgeon is a beneficiary of GOP voters’ anti-establishment rage, able to point to a record of heavily criticising President Obama, and interesting to Republican donors for the diversity he can bring to the field. Unlikely to get the nomination as he’s never held office, but with those qualifications he could endure. The longer he and Mr Trump maintain their dominance in the polls, the scarier he is for the rest of the field.
– Ted Cruz: The Senator from Texas is playing hard on his conservative credentials, looking to lock down many of the southern primaries in the hope that he can offset what will be almost certainly poor showings in the first four. If he’s successful he may have a decent run on his hands (although his map from there to the convention is patchy at best). Disregarding the early primaries is a brave move, and Mr Cruz will have a hard time convincing donors that he’s worth backing if he isn’t first in at least two of the southern contests – time will tell if the gamble pays off.
– Carly Fiorina: The former CEO of HP has the trump card of being the only female in the field, and has won plaudits for her determination to tackle Mr Trump head-on. Her much deployed business record is hardly glowing however, so Iowa will be key to any further running. Look for a strong showing there, or Mrs Fiorina will be done.
– Jim Gilmore: The former Governor of Virginia’s name might not ring any bells, but he is a declared GOP candidate for the presidency, and despite his low, low poll numbers and a bravely moderate position on abortion, he was included in the second-tier of the first Republican debate last month (a luxury not afforded to the 18th candidate on this list). His chances are slimmer than almost anyone, so unless he does something magical in Iowa, he won’t be around for long.
– Lindsey Graham: The Senator from South Carolina has decent name recognition, and an intriguing approach to politics: pragmatist on domestic issues, hawkish on foreign policy. Nevertheless, his numbers have never really got off the ground – some have suggested that his run is more of an exercise in increasing his power within the GOP than actually getting the nomination. Expect him to be loud but largely ineffectual as far as 2016 is concerned.
– Mike Huckabee: The former Governor of Arkansas is perhaps the candidate leaning hardest on his Christian conservative credentials. (As made clear by his determined effort to be the highest profile supporter of Kim Davis – the now infamous clerk from Kentucky who refused to grant gay marriage licenses on religious grounds). He’s at the top end of the lower third in the polls, and, like others, he is betting a lot on Iowa. Failure to secure a strong finish there may spell the end of his second presidential run.
– Bobby Jindal: The Governor of Louisiana is the youngest candidate in the field at 44, but that seems to be of little help at the moment: he didn’t make the top ten in the latest national poll, and as a social conservative his is a platform well populated with higher profile candidates. A rising star in the GOP, this may be more of a training run for a later campaign.
– John Kasich: When the Ohio Governor announced his campaign, many predicted his firmly moderate positions would make him an understudy to Mr Bush: waiting in the wings should Jeb falter. In reality, Mr Bush hasn’t made enough successful steps on stage for us to see a coherent movement, let alone distinguish a misstep. In this light, Kasich can make a case for himself as the establishment candidate that can actually get it done. This is, however,entirely predicated on success in New Hampshire, Governor Kasich has said as much himself, and falling short in the Granite State would be difficult to rectify.
– George Pataki: The former Governor of New York is almost on the level of Mr Gilmore when it comes to name recognition, and – like Mr Gilmore – the polls reflect it. Furthermore, as if hailing from New York wasn’t a hard enough sell to the Republican base, he is also staunchly pro-choice and LGBTQ rights. New Hampshire is his only hope.
– Rand Paul: The Senator from Kentucky has been hailed as the ‘young candidate’ by some (despite not being the youngest), a title he rose to – promising greater youth engagement and a fiery libertarian campaign. That was the plan. Unfortunately it hasn’t quite worked out that way for Mr Paul – who finds himself on the left of an ever more hawkish Republican foreign policy. Aides are briefing that he is already looking past the first 4 primaries to the South, but his route is much more doubtful than, for instance, the other candidate targeting the South, Ted Cruz. With a lot of ground work it’s possible he can produce an upset, it’s too early to tell. Either way, count him out of the early contests.
– Rick Perry: Most still remember the former Texas Governor for his gaffe-prone bid in 2012, and he is certainly struggling to throw off that reputation. Nonetheless, it’s been a tighter (if less effective) campaign so far, with Mr Perry playing on his 15 years of very recent executive experience in the hope that it will bring him Iowa. If he takes the Hawkeye State and gets a boost in the polls, Perry may benefit from the GOP’s tendency to reward those who make repeat campaigns, but if he doesn’t he will struggle to capture support.
– Mario Rubio: The Hispanic senator from Florida was one of the ‘big three’ going into this race (the others being Mr Bush and Governor Scott Walker), but in spite of his gold-plated status as ‘the next big thing’ in the Republican party, he has failed to register with voters. He is undoubtedly a gifted orator – perhaps the best in the field – but so far his fairly muted campaign, along with having to compete with Mr Bush for his state’s big donors, have done little to excite. For now, he has the backers to last longer than most in the race, and the skills to perform well – he just needs to show them in time for the primaries.
– Rick Santorum: The former Senator from Pennsylvania returns to the race after a surprisingly successful campaign in 2012. Unfortunately for Mr Santorum, much of that success came from stealthily targeting vulnerable areas of key states – a much harder tactic to pull off with the name recognition Mr Santorum now enjoys. His platform of social conservatism paired with middle-class populism is aimed directly at Iowa, but even a good result there will have to be followed by another in New Hampshire to establish any sort of trajectory.
– Donald J Trump: At last, we reach the Donald. The CEO has been making headlines every day for the last two months, with a gleeful disregard for the Republican party line, political correctness or even the truth. Wild claims about Mexican rapists aside, Trump’s staying power at the front of the polls is swiftly changing from an extended joke to a deep concern for the Republican party. Clearly, his path to the nomination is fraught with difficulties – his trademark showboating and grand gestures will most likely have little effect on many primary states, and he is heavily reliant on Florida (where both Mr Rubio and Mr Bush have strong bases). Financially though, Trump could theoretically last as long as he wants to – up to the convention or even further if he chooses to break his pledge and run as a third party candidate (should he not be chosen as the GOP nominee, of course). This presents quite the pickle for Mr Reince Priebus (the man in the unenviable position of leading the Republican party): try to shut him down and incur the wrath of a grassroots base that detests being told who they can and can’t vote for, or leave him be in the hope he burns out, and endure an extended period of further chaos. Either way, Trump has been the spark that has ignited the Republican race, and ensured it has been anything but the predicted ‘boring’ contest . One to watch (not that you have a choice).
– Scott Walker: The Governor of Wisconsin fills the third position in our ‘big three’: allegedly in favour with the all-powerful Koch brothers, the candidate most in touch with the white working class bloc and a proven record in a blue state, he seemed to be a real contender before he’d even become a candidate. Then the announcement came, and since then it seems Governor Walker has decided he can just wait out all this noise and commotion, come in just before the primaries and sweep up the endorsements. He has been almost bizarrely mute on what he’d do as President, and seems content to let others do the talking (Trump being more than obliging). Presumably this will change come crunch time – he is another long-game candidate – and his campaign do insist the Governor is targeting Iowa and New Hampshire. Some proof would be good.
– Mark Everson: The former IRS Commissioner might be the least known candidate in the entire field – in fact he’s rarely included on the national polls, and wasn’t even invited to the second tier of August’s Fox News debate. To say his chances are small is understatement. 10 points if you spot his name ANYWHERE.
Trust me when I say that is about as concise as it can be whilst still conveying actual information, so my conclusion will be short. Barring a last-minute announcement from Vice-President Joe Biden, the Democrat contest is looking like a two-horse race, with Clinton still surely the odds-on favourite. The Republican field however, is about as unpredictable as it gets right now: we have Carly Fiorina, Mike Huckabee, Rick Perry, Rick Santorum and Scott Walker ALL counting heavily on Iowa choosing them, then Chris Christie, John Kasich, George Pataki, Rick Santorum and Scott Walker all need a win in New Hampshire, and that’s before we even get to South Carolina and Nevada. But still Rand Paul and and Ted Cruz won’t be done as they’ll be waiting on big primary wins in the South. No one, absolutely no-one, can predict what the race will be looking like when we eventually get that far, all we know that after this long hot summer, autumn isn’t looking any cooler.
The Great American Race continues.
The Great American Race 